There are a lot of flash effects that can be achieved with jQuery.So when do you really need to use Flash instead of javascript?
Quite simply, when you need to do something that jQuery can't do. This includes video/audio, complex animations, cross-browser vector graphics, multi-file uploads, etc. The list goes on.
Of course, you could always write your website in HTML/jQuery and only use Flash for the necessary parts. That way it's a win-win situation, and your application degrades gracefully for those that don't have Flash.
Flash should be considered a 'last resort' in my opinion, and it's one that is shared with many others. Some people use flashblock, so they'll never see it. Users on mobile devices won't see it either.
There are few areas left for flash currently, and HTML5 will likely eliminate one of them.
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