extrapolating data with numpy/python

Question

Let's say I have a simple data set. Perhaps in dictionary form, it would look like this:

{1:5, 2:10, 3:15, 4:20, 5:25}

(the order is always ascending). What I want to do is logically figure out what the next point of data is most likely to be. In the case, for example, it would be {6: 30}

what would be the best way to do this?

Answer 1

You can also use numpy's polyfit:

data = np.array([[1,5], [2,10], [3,15], [4,20], [5,25]])
fit = np.polyfit(data[:,0], data[:,1] ,1) #The use of 1 signifies a linear fit.

fit
[  5.00000000e+00   1.58882186e-15]  #y = 5x + 0

line = np.poly1d(fit)
new_points = np.arange(5)+6

new_points
[ 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]

line(new_points)
[ 30.  35.  40.  45.  50.]

This allows you to alter the degree of the polynomial fit quite easily as the function polyfit take thes following arguments np.polyfit(x data, y data, degree). Shown is a linear fit where the returned array looks like fit[0]*x^n + fit[1]*x^(n-1) + ... + fit[n-1]*x^0 for any degree n. The poly1d function allows you turn this array into a function that returns the value of the polynomial at any given value x.

In general extrapolation without a well understood model will have sporadic results at best.

---

Exponential curve fitting.

from scipy.optimize import curve_fit

def func(x, a, b, c):
    return a * np.exp(-b * x) + c

x = np.linspace(0,4,5)
y = func(x, 2.5, 1.3, 0.5)
yn = y + 0.2*np.random.normal(size=len(x))

fit ,cov = curve_fit(func, x, yn)
fit
[ 2.67217435  1.21470107  0.52942728]         #Variables

y
[ 3.          1.18132948  0.68568395  0.55060478  0.51379141]  #Original data

func(x,*fit)
[ 3.20160163  1.32252521  0.76481773  0.59929086  0.5501627 ]  #Fit to original + noise