As Cody Gray mentioned when answering my other question here, Raymond Chen talks about how icon overlays are a poor choice here (note that the article is a year old).
The substantive argument against overlays is that only one can be shown at a time... so if two apply, which one wins? The specious argument is that there can only be 15 - which in my opinion is a design choice by Microsoft, not an argument against their efficacy.
With the changing topology of file:
I believe Files and folders need the equivalent of presence indicators to instantly identify their status.
What is an alternative to icon overlays that presents the same instant visual queue on the status of a file/folder? Maybe there needs to be a new model for icons?
Edit:
2010-12-14
The more I've thought about this, the more I feel that the idea that there can only be ONE overlay and that there's no way to make overlays work together is ridiculous.
Unless there's a technical reason you cannot have more than one overlay?
Consider (off the top of my head):
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