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How to obtain a confidence interval or a measure of prediction dispersion when using xgboost for classification?

How to obtain a confidence interval or a measure of prediction dispersion when using xgboost for classification?

So for example, if xgboost predicts a probability of an event is 0.9, how can the confidence in that probability be obtained?

Also is this confidence assumed to be heteroskedastic?

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Greg Avatar asked May 24 '16 16:05

Greg


1 Answers

To produce confidence intervals for xgboost model you should train several models (you can use bagging for this). Each model will produce a response for test sample - all responses will form a distribution from which you can easily compute confidence intervals using basic statistics. You should produce response distribution for each test sample.

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pplonski Avatar answered Nov 01 '22 11:11

pplonski