Are there any well-known algorithms or computer models that computer scientists use to predict FIFA World Cup winners?

Question

Occasionally I read news articles that mention about some computer models that computer scientists use to predict winners of some sporting events or the odds for betting which I think there must be a mathematical model behind it. I never bothered to think twice even though I am a "pseudo computer scientist" myself. With the 2010 FIFA World Cup just underway, and since I am also a "pseudo football/soccer player" myself, I just started to wonder about these calculations algorithms.

For example, I know one factor is determining the strength of opponents, so that a win against a strong opponent can count more than a win against a weak opponent. But it now kind of gets in a circular loop, or at least how does one determine the strength of a team in the first place, before that team can be considered strong or weak? If it's based on a historical data then there's no way that could be accurate, because those players of the past are no longer on the fields so their impact is none (except maybe if they become coaches like Maradona)

Anyway, long question short, if you're happen to be working in this field or have some knowledge, please shed some lights.

Answer 1

I know of some work, but its basis might surprise you a bit -- it's been used to predict (quite accurately) what countries do how well in the Olympics, but it's based purely on the economics of the countries in question, not looking at the individual athletes at all. I don't believe it's been used specifically to look at FIFA world cup, but I suspect it would apply about as well, or maybe even a bit better.

Answer 2

Some of the large Investment Banks started a competition for thier quants to write models to predict the wold cup winner.

http://kaggle.com/worldcup2010

More info on the models

http://kaggle.com/blog/2010/06/03/predicting-the-2010-fifa-world-cup-can-statisticians-outdo-the-investment-banks/